CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2023-11-28T20:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-11-28T20:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27920/-1
CME Note: Asymmetric halo CME visible in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, with a data gap in STEREO A COR2 from 2023-11-28T18:53Z-23:53Z. The source is an eruption from AR 3500 (S16W03) starting around 2023-11-28T19:00Z with subsequent M3.4 flare peaking at 2023-11-28T19:32Z and/or M9.8 flare peaking at 19:50Z. Flare, EUV wave, dimming, and post-eruptive arcades are visible in SDO AIA 193, flare, opening field lines, and post-eruptive arcades in SDO AIA 171, and flare and post-eruptive arcades are visible in SDO AIA 94. The CME overlaps with CME: 2023-11-28T20:48Z in the coronagraphs and may be considered a separate, measurable event from a portion of the complex eruption that is directed towards the west but could alternatively be the shock from a single CME event. Arrival signature characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal reaching 28nT, an increase in speed from 373 km/s to 560 km/s at 2023-12-0109:20Z, and subsequent increases in density and temperature.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-12-01T08:48Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-12-01T06:45Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:

This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME

Lead Time: -9684.13 hour(s)
Difference: 2.05 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2025-01-07T20:56Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy